For 20 years, John Gibson and his colleagues have been tracking water across remote landscapes in northeastern Alberta. What they discovered could change how people think about water management and climate resilience.
Gibson presented those findings on Sept. 29 as he opened this year’s Office of the Chief Scientist Seminar Series. Running from fall through spring, the series fosters the connection between science and policy.
“It’s nice to get a chance to show some of this work that people may not be aware of yet,” Gibson says. “I hope the presentation encourages more investigation and thought.”
A new way of testing
Gibson’s presentation brings together two decades of data from 50 lake watersheds in Alberta’s oil sands region. The project, which was conducted jointly with industry and Indigenous community partners, monitored runoff as a means of predicting acidification.
What differentiates his work is that it compares two datasets: one collected continuously using traditional stream gauging and the other collected annually using an isotope-based sampling method.
“It’s taken a long time to gather the information and to understand what it means,” Gibson says. “Our isotopic method compares very favorably with the temporal records that you get from conventional gauging.”
There are two advantages to Gibson’s isotope-based approach. First, the technology is significantly more agile than traditional stream gauging, eliminating the costs related to installing, calibrating, and maintaining the equipment. Second, the isotope method provides an annual, high spatial-resolution view of how water moves through Alberta’s remote boreal landscapes.
Where’s the water?
According to Gibson, a large share of runoff in the region’s headwater watersheds is fed by thawing permafrost, a source of water that will eventually disappear.
“We’re living in a water availability world that is fed by a transient process,” he said. “Things are going to get drier in the future.”
His research suggests runoff could decline by up to 40 per cent over the next century as thawing permafrost is depleted. That has potential policy implications for long-term water management, mine closure planning and lake health—something Gibson covered in his presentation.
Watch now
Interested in learning more? The full presentation is on the Office of the Chief Scientist’s YouTube channel. Watch now.